Home Loan rate rise in August? Inflation and house price increases indicate yes!
10/04/2012 
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Home loan rates could be on the way up again as early as August, presenting Prime Minister John Howard with fresh political problems as housing affordability takes a tumble.
New inflation figures released yesterday came in at a higher than expected 1.2 per cent for the June quarter, sparking fears of an imminent rise. Annual inflation sits at 2.1 per cent, which is toward the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s target range.
But the size of the increase – caused mainly by higher petrol and food prices, as well as rising rents – was likely to concern the bank’s board.
Most economists agreed the price volatility would prompt a rates rise at the RBA’s August meeting.
Mr Howard, who today celebrates his 68th birthday, suggested there was no need for an increase.
“What I’m saying to you and what is obvious is that it (inflation) is still well within that range,” he said.
Housing Affordability to decline
A quarter of a percentage rise would push up the monthly loan repayment on a $300,000 mortgage by $50.
The increase would also be expected to flow through to the rental market .
Shadow treasurer Wayne Swan seized on the new inflation figures to warn householders were under growing financial pressure and the future was looking bleak.
“Apart from the possible implications for interest rates, mums and dads around the country will be concerned that the cost of the basics are going up and up,” Mr Swan said.
The new inflation figures show in the three months to the end of June petrol prices rose 9 per cent, vegetables 6 per cent, rent 1.6 per cent while the cost of travel and computers fell.
The broad inflation rate of 1.2 per cent for the June quarter, and the core rate of 0.9 per cent, was well beyond market predictions.
Home Loan pain to mortgage belt voters
A rate hike could not come at a worse time for the Government as it struggles to peg back Labor’s runaway lead in the polls.
Labor has made political capital out of declining affordability, including in the private rental market, and from the increasing cost of living.
Rental prices increased across all capital cities by 1.6 per cent, driven by continuing low vacancy rates.
Renewed speculation of an imminent interest rates rise dovetails conveniently with Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s housing summit in Canberra today.
Labor remained tight-lipped yesterday on the possible outcomes of the meeting, which it says will examine the factors leading to higher prices and a lack of affordable rental housing.
Treasurer Peter Costello called on the states to cut stamp duties on homes and release more land.
“Young home-buyers are paying more (stamp duty) than ever before . . . I expect an agreement to come out tomorrow from the Labor states to cut stamp duty,” Mr Costello said.
Source: The Advertiser and The Courier-Mail
Rick Adlam has been helping clients with home loan finance since 1985 when he was home consultant with AV Jennings. Rick started Equity Home Loans in 1996 to help homeowners become property investors. Rick currently consults in the development of Mr Mortgage for mortgage brokers and HomeMate for new home buyers.
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